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Hindsight Bias
"The reason for overconfidence may also have to do with hindsight bias, a tendency to think that one would have known actual events were coming before they happened, had one been present then or had reason to pay attention. Hindsight bias encourages a view of the world as more predictable than it really is."
"Hindsight bias: a.k.a Monday morning quarterback. See Fischhoff (1982)."
Key Paper
Bibliography
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