Hindsight Bias

"The reason for overconfidence may also have to do with hindsight bias, a tendency to think that one would have known actual events were coming before they happened, had one been present then or had reason to pay attention. Hindsight bias encourages a view of the world as more predictable than it really is."
Shiller, 2000

"Hindsight bias: a.k.a Monday morning quarterback. See Fischhoff (1982)."
Taleb (2004) page 269

Key Paper

CHRISTENSEN-SZALANSKI, J.J.J. and C.F. WILLHAM, 1991. The hindsight bias: A meta-analysis. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes. [Cited by 68]

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