‘The reason for overconfidence may also have to do with hindsight bias, a tendency to think that one would have known actual events were coming before they happened, had one been present then or had reason to pay attention. Hindsight bias encourages a view of the world as more predictable than it really is.’
Shiller, 2000
‘Hindsight bias: a.k.a Monday morning quarterback. See Fischhoff (1982).’
Taleb (2004) page 269
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